Galaxy Cuts CLARITY Act Passage Odds to 10%

✦Key Takeaways

✦Market Analysis

Galaxy’s revised outlook reflects a more cautious assessment of the U.S. legislative process rather than a change in the broader policy direction. The CLARITY Act has been positioned as a potential framework for defining market structure in digital assets, but the path to enactment appears increasingly constrained by both substantive disagreements and procedural timing.

The firm highlighted three unresolved policy areas that continue to slow momentum. First, ethics concerns remain politically sensitive, particularly as lawmakers weigh how any new framework could affect conflicts of interest and oversight standards. Second, the treatment of stablecoin yield remains a contested issue, with implications for how issuers, intermediaries, and users may be allowed to generate returns under future rules. Third, developer protections continue to be a critical point of debate, as policymakers attempt to distinguish between software development, protocol participation, and regulated financial activity.