Bernstein Sees $10 Trillion Prediction Market by 2035

Bernstein has lifted its forecast for prediction markets to $10 trillion in annual volume by 2035, a dramatic increase from its prior estimate of $1 trillion by 2030 issued just five months ago. The revision underscores how quickly analysts are reassessing the potential scale of event-based trading platforms as retail participation, institutional interest and crypto-native market infrastructure converge.

The new projection suggests Bernstein sees prediction markets evolving from a niche product into a major financial venue. That would place them among the largest trading segments in global markets, with activity spanning politics, macroeconomic outcomes, sports and other event-driven contracts.

The upgrade also reflects a broader shift in market structure. Prediction markets have gained visibility as exchanges and fintech firms test new products, while blockchain-based settlement and stablecoin rails continue to lower operational friction. The sector remains early, but the pace of forecast revisions indicates that analysts now view its addressable market as materially larger than previously assumed.

Still, the path to $10 trillion is not linear. Regulatory clarity, liquidity depth, contract design and jurisdictional limits will determine whether prediction markets can scale beyond speculative bursts and into durable, high-turnover venues. Bernstein’s revised estimate should be read as a long-range thesis, not a near-term trading target.

For crypto investors, the significance is less about the headline number than the direction of travel. If prediction markets continue to attract users and capital, they could become a meaningful source of on-chain activity, fee revenue and demand for settlement infrastructure tied to digital assets.